Press Release
HRCOC | The Hispanic Retail Chamber of Commerce, Inc.
U.S. Retail Closes 2025 Amid Caution, Consolidation, and Transformation: HRCOC’s Outlook for 2026
Washington, D.C., December 30, 2025 —
The year 2025 marks a turning point for the U.S. retail sector. In an environment shaped by persistent inflation, more rational consumer behavior, and an active wave of consolidation, food and grocery retail has demonstrated resilience, adaptability, and a clear redefinition of strategic priorities.
From the perspective of The Hispanic Retail Chamber of Commerce (HRCOC), 2025 leaves behind key lessons that will shape the industry’s agenda in 2026.
Consumer Behavior: More Selective, Less Impulsive
Throughout 2025, U.S. consumers displayed more planned and less impulsive purchasing behavior. Store visit frequency remained uneven, while average basket size came under pressure due to the search for value, clear promotions, and private label offerings. Shoppers are comparing more, visiting multiple retail formats, and prioritizing essential categories such as fresh foods, private label products, and ready-to-eat solutions.
“In 2025, we also saw that the retailers who navigated this environment most successfully were those who shifted from transactional models to relational ones—building real collaboration with suppliers, making data-driven decisions, and developing a deep understanding of their communities,” said Julio Ibanez, Chairman of HRCOC.
Traditional supermarkets remain highly relevant, but face the challenge of more clearly communicating their value proposition amid competition from warehouse clubs, discount formats, and specialized operators. “For independent retailers, one of the most critical challenges today is launching strong private label programs that genuinely deliver savings and value to our communities,” Ibanez added.
Inflation: Slowing, but with Structural Impact
While inflation showed signs of moderation toward the end of the year, its structural effects remain firmly in place. Rising labor, logistics, and energy costs pushed retailers to optimize operations, renegotiate supplier relationships, and accelerate investments in technology, efficiency, and automation.
In this environment, pricing has evolved from a purely commercial tool into a strategic decision closely tied to brand reputation and consumer trust.
Migration: Direct Impact on Consumption and Workforce
During 2025, migration dynamics became a relevant variable affecting U.S. supermarket retail performance. Uncertainty within immigrant communities had a direct impact on consumption patterns, particularly in high-velocity categories and neighborhood formats where these communities play a central role.
At the same time, the sector faced growing pressure on labor availability across stores, distribution centers, and logistics operations—intensifying long-standing challenges related to hiring, retention, and labor costs.
From HRCOC’s perspective, these dynamics reinforce the need for more efficient operating models, greater investment in automation, and workforce strategies aligned with the country’s demographic and economic realities.
M&A: An Active Year of Consolidation
The year 2025 was marked by strong activity in mergers and acquisitions. Regional chains, ethnic operators, and retail technology platforms emerged as strategic targets for larger groups seeking scale, geographic expansion, and access to new consumer segments.
“We are witnessing a more selective consolidation process, where value is no longer driven solely by size, but by the ability to connect with real communities and understand diverse markets.” Hispanic and multicultural retail continues to consolidate as a strategic asset within the U.S. supermarket ecosystem.
From HRCOC’s standpoint, interest in this segment continues to grow—not only because of its scale, but also due to its deep connection with high-growth demographic communities and recurring consumption patterns. This is reflected in a sustained increase in inquiries, information requests, and concrete business proposals from both suppliers and operators seeking to enter or expand within the U.S. supermarket landscape.
“We are entering a phase where the most successful relationships will move beyond traditional vendor-retailer dynamics and toward strategic retailer-to-retailer alliances, both nationally and internationally,” the organization noted.
Grand Retail Show: A Barometer of the Industry
The Grand Retail Show (GRS) further strengthened its role in 2025 as a key platform for dialogue, business development, and strategic vision across the supermarket ecosystem. Manufacturers, retailers, startups, and institutional stakeholders aligned around a central idea: the future of retail will be hybrid, collaborative, data-driven, and deeply human in customer experience.
The Grand Retail Show 2026 is preparing for a strategically scaled edition, featuring an expanded offering of products, services, and private label development initiatives—reinforcing its position as a central meeting point for the U.S. supermarket ecosystem.
The event will deepen interaction between supermarket chains and suppliers from diverse origins, with an agenda focused on applied innovation, artificial intelligence, retail media, sustainability, and new in-store monetization models aligned with real market needs.
2026 Outlook: Less Noise, More Strategy
Looking ahead to 2026, HRCOC anticipates a scenario of moderate growth, more demanding consumers, and a retail sector under increasing pressure to execute with precision. The challenge is no longer simply to sell more, but to sell better—understanding who the customer is, how they shop, and why.
“The retailers who win in 2026 will be those who successfully combine operational efficiency, a clear value proposition, and genuine community connection,” said Daniel Esteban Novoa, Executive Vice President of HRCOC. “The era of automatic growth is over. We are entering a phase where strategy, data, and trust will define success.”
Private label development has moved beyond a defensive tactic and is now firmly established as a strategic lever for differentiation, profitability, and value-chain control.
HRCOC reaffirms its commitment to supporting the supermarket sector, brands, and entrepreneurs who view retail not only as a business, but as a powerful economic and social engine for the United States—one capable of integrating suppliers from diverse backgrounds, strengthening inclusive value chains, and reflecting the diversity that defines today’s American consumer.
